Forecasts Regime
Regime
The underlying signals that are moving in a coordinated direction, and the surface state the joint trajectory currently tracks toward.
Several recent uploads are competing for attention at the same time. The underlying signals are not pointing toward a clear next stretch at recent pace.
The signals moving together, and how settled the read is, are below.
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Today
The channel's joint trajectory
Where several signals are moving together — read as one direction, hedged as arithmetic on the recent window, not a prediction.
Today the channel sits in a Crowded stretch — no clear trajectory toward a new state in the next month.
Moving together
Features moving in a coordinated direction
Every feature whose recent per-day rate sits clear of zero — sorted by absolute rate. Each row shows today's value and the range over the recent window.
| Feature | Per-day rate | Current | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of videos receiving any views last week | -0.204/day | 21.000 | -0.274 – -0.108 |
| How much recent uploads are driving impressions | +0.065/day | 1.481 | 0.040 – 0.082 |
| Recent uploads' share of last week's impressions | +0.046/day | 0.984 | 0.030 – 0.059 |
| Suggested Videos' share of last week's views | +0.027/day | 0.625 | 0.023 – 0.031 |
| Suggested Videos' share of last four weeks' views | -0.017/day | 0.325 | -0.021 – -0.013 |
| View trend over last week | +0.017/day | 0.023 | 0.004 – 0.032 |
| Top video's share of last week's impressions | +0.017/day | 0.868 | 0.009 – 0.022 |
| Top country's share of last week's views | +0.008/day | 0.485 | 0.005 – 0.012 |
| YouTube Search's share of last week's views | +0.007/day | 0.031 | 0.004 – 0.011 |
| View trend over last four weeks | -0.004/day | -0.088 | -0.006 – -0.003 |
History
Recent state changes
The channel's recent state history over the trailing window. Each row is the day a new surface state was assigned + the reason text recorded at that build.
Apr 10 – Apr 12 (3 days): Too new to read
Apr 13 – Apr 15 (3 days): One-video carry
Apr 16 – Apr 18 (3 days): Quiet patch
Apr 19 – Apr 29 (11 days): Crowded stretch
Apr 30 – May 4 (5 days): Too new to read
May 5 – May 6 (2 days): One-video carry
May 7: Quiet patch
May 8: One-video carry
May 9 – May 17 (9 days): Crowded stretch
May 18 – May 29 (12 days): One-video carry
May 30: Quiet patch
May 31 – Jun 2 (3 days): One-video carry
Jun 3: Suggested pickup
Jun 4 – Jun 6 (3 days): Quiet patch
Jun 7 – Jun 11 (5 days): Crowded stretch