Forecasts Growth

How the channel's subscriber and view trajectory has been moving, what its arithmetic projects forward, and how past forecasts have resolved.

Next thresholds at current pace

One row per active threshold. Each band is the 10th–90th percentile of bootstrap-resampled recent rates. Assumes recent cadence holds — arithmetic on the past few weeks, not a prediction.

  • At current pace, the channel crosses 5,000 lifetime views around February 8, ±155 days.

    Currently at 1,022 · rate over past 7 days: 14.57 lifetime views/day · confidence: low.

  • Next subscribers milestone (25) is too thin to project usefully — the bootstrap band is wider than the point estimate.

    Rate over past 7 days: 0.00 subscribers/day. Archetype: high.

  • At current pace, the channel crosses 50 published videos around May 28.

    Currently at 33 · rate over past 7 days: 1.00 published videos/day · confidence: high.

Projected ranges by horizon

One row per forecast type, one column per horizon. Cells show the projected low–high band at current pace. Insufficient cells collapse to hedged copy rather than fake precision.

Forecast type+7d+14d+30d+90d
subscribers12 – 13band 10-90; lookback 28d13 – 14band 10-90; lookback 28d16 – 18band 10-90; lookback 28d29 – 33band 10-90; lookback 28d
daily views11 – 31band 10-90; lookback 28dToo volatile in the past 28 days to project usefully.Too volatile in the past 28 days to project usefully.Too volatile in the past 28 days to project usefully.

Past-forecast calibration

Inside-band rate at each horizon over the trailing 90 days. When the rate sits below 50%, the bands have widened — the build's own track record is the credibility receipt.

  • +7-day horizon

    Calibration record begins this week — fewer than 5 resolved forecasts at this horizon.

  • +14-day horizon

    Calibration record begins this week — fewer than 5 resolved forecasts at this horizon.

  • +30-day horizon

    Calibration record begins this week — fewer than 5 resolved forecasts at this horizon.

  • +90-day horizon

    Calibration record begins this week — fewer than 5 resolved forecasts at this horizon.