Forecasts Regime

The classifier-input features that are moving in a coordinated direction, and the surface state the joint trajectory currently tracks toward.

Today's joint trajectory

Joint trajectory tracks toward One-video carry in roughly 27 days, ±23.

Today's classified state is Crowded stretch. Assumes recent direction holds — arithmetic on the past 21 days, not a prediction.

Features moving in a coordinated direction

Every feature whose recent slope's 95% CI sits clear of zero — sorted by absolute slope magnitude. Each row shows today's value and the trailing-window rate.

FeatureSlopeCurrentCI
active-video count+0.973/day33.000[0.957, 0.992]
top video's 7-day impression share+0.022/day0.751[0.015, 0.032]
source diversity+7.6e-3/day0.615[0.002, 0.015]
leading source's 7-day share-6.7e-3/day0.529[-0.012, -0.000]
Search's 7-day share+1.5e-3/day0.010[0.001, 0.002]

Recent state changes

The classifier's history over the trailing window. Each row is the day a new surface state was assigned + the reason text the classifier wrote.

  • Apr 9: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • Apr 10: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • Apr 11: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • Apr 12: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • Apr 13: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 14: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 15: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 16: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 17: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 18: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 19: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 20: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 21: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 22: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 23: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 24: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 25: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 26: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 27: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 28: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 29: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • Apr 30: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • May 1: Too new to read

    A video published in the last 7 days has too few impressions to read click-rate signal — still in early testing.

  • May 2: Too new to read

    A video published in the last 7 days has too few impressions to read click-rate signal — still in early testing.

  • May 3: Too new to read

    A video published in the last 7 days has too few impressions to read click-rate signal — still in early testing.

  • May 4: Too new to read

    A video published in the last 7 days has too few impressions to read click-rate signal — still in early testing.

  • May 5: Still early

    No dominant pattern signal detected — channel is in a stable or early-stage state.

  • May 6: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • May 7: One-video carry

    One video holds more than 40% of trailing 7-day impressions — catalog reach is anchored to a single title.

  • May 8: Too new to read

    A video published in the last 7 days has too few impressions to read click-rate signal — still in early testing.

  • May 9: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • May 10: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.

  • May 11: Crowded stretch

    A recently published video is drawing more than half of trailing impression volume in an active catalog.