beta

Distribution happens in two phases — test (low impressions, narrow audience) then scale.

agrees

the belief matches this channel's data

Held 4 days · Last changed Sep 11, 2026 · 1 change

agrees on 1 of 4 pooled public channels · disagrees on 2

What the check does

Per video, fit a piecewise function to the impression-by-day curve. Identify the 'elbow' where slope changes most. Agrees if ≥50% of mature videos show a detectable elbow within days 3–14.

The reading

0.70

Checked on 10 videos ·

How the verdict has moved

  1. Sep 11, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026agrees
  2. Aug 22, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026inconclusive

Where the belief comes from

Two-phase-algorithm folklore.

Checked against

Every figure on this page is checked against @iamartharrison’s tracked data, through Sep 14, 2026. The tally above reads 4 pooled public channels’ files.

Keep reading

The rest of the record

This belief sits in a ledger of fifty, each one re-checked every day. These surfaces carry the rest of it.