The belief ledger
50 things creators say, checked against every pooled public channel, every day.
Each one is a claim with a calculation behind it. The record says what the data showed — including the many it cannot call yet.
- agrees
- the belief matches this channel's data
- disagrees
- the data runs the other way here
- inconclusive
- the sample is too thin to read
- not currently testable
- the data needed isn't shared
What changed
- Oct 21, 2026
A video's lifetime trajectory is largely determined by its first 24–48 hour performance. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 40 days before this change.
- Oct 12, 2026
Once a channel has 30+ videos, key ratios (CTR, AVD, sub conversion) settle. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 31 days before this change.
- Oct 10, 2026
Editing title or thumbnail post-publish kills momentum. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 29 days before this change.
- Oct 9, 2026
Videos 8–10 minutes long perform best for ad revenue and watch time. — agrees → disagrees Held agrees for 13 days before this change.
- Oct 7, 2026
High click-through-rate drives video success more than high retention. — agrees → disagrees Held agrees for 10 days before this change.
- Oct 7, 2026
High retention drives video success more than high click-through-rate. — disagrees → agrees Held disagrees for 10 days before this change.
- Oct 3, 2026
Comments-per-view tracks audience resonance better than likes-per-view. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 22 days before this change.
- Oct 3, 2026
Videos with growing Search-source share over time become long-term assets. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 22 days before this change.
- Oct 3, 2026
Shorter videos accumulate more views than longer ones. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 22 days before this change.
- Sep 29, 2026
Comments are weighted more than likes by the algorithm. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 18 days before this change.
- Sep 28, 2026
Distribution happens in two phases — test (low impressions, narrow audience) then scale. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 17 days before this change.
- Sep 28, 2026
YouTube's algorithm tests a video primarily in its first 1–3 days, after which performance is largely set. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 17 days before this change.
- Sep 28, 2026
Most videos peak in their first three days. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 17 days before this change.
- Sep 27, 2026
High click-through-rate drives video success more than high retention. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 16 days before this change.
- Sep 27, 2026
High retention drives video success more than high click-through-rate. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 16 days before this change.
- Sep 26, 2026
Videos 8–10 minutes long perform best for ad revenue and watch time. — disagrees → agrees Held disagrees for 10 days before this change.
- Sep 25, 2026
Longer videos accumulate more total watch minutes per viewer. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 14 days before this change.
- Sep 23, 2026
Most subscribers come from a few breakout videos, not from many videos contributing equally. — inconclusive → agrees Held inconclusive for 12 days before this change.
- Sep 19, 2026
A new publish steals impression budget from the rest of the catalog. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 8 days before this change.
- Sep 16, 2026
Videos 8–10 minutes long perform best for ad revenue and watch time. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 5 days before this change.
- Sep 16, 2026
Saturday and Sunday uploads get less engagement than weekday uploads. — inconclusive → disagrees Held inconclusive for 5 days before this change.
Every belief on record
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool. For each channel, the share of views over its most recent 28 covered days that arrived from sources the viewer did not choose — Browse, Suggested, Search, hashtags, Shorts, ads — set against the channel's age in days. The complement (direct, external links, playlists, end screens, the channel page, notifications) is where the viewer came back on their own, the same split the public database already uses. Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r <= -0.4, disagrees at r >= 0.4.
-0.35Checked on 10 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Maturation-creator folklore.
- Held 25 days · Last changed Sep 28, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Per video, fit a piecewise function to the impression-by-day curve. Identify the 'elbow' where slope changes most. Agrees if ≥50% of mature videos show a detectable elbow within days 3–14.
0.59Checked on 29 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Two-phase-algorithm folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Per video, compare impression delivery rate in days 8–14 against days 1–7. Bucket by retention tier (<30%, 30–50%, 50%+). Agrees if 50%+ bucket has impression-rate ratio ≥0.7 AND lower-retention buckets ≤0.4.
0Checked on 41 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: TubeBuddy creator guides.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Browse (SUBSCRIBER) views broken out by subscribed state, over the views that carried a status. Agrees if the subscribed share is ≥50%. Reads summary_channel_source_subscribed — public since V83.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion; conflicts with documented YouTube guidance.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool, durability read as a half-life. Per channel and per source: take the day that source delivered the most views, fit a line through the log of the next 14 days, and read off how long a halving takes. A source that is not fading over that stretch has no half-life and sits out — reporting a cut-off window as a long half-life would flatter whichever source happened to be climbing. The reading is the pool's median of (Browse half-life over Suggested half-life); agrees at >= 1.5, disagrees at <= 1/1.5. The shared data carries source views per day at the channel level, so this is a channel-level durability read rather than the per-video one the belief describes.
1.17Checked on 9 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Pickup-pattern folklore.
Cards contribute roughly 1% of traffic.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 cards-source data ingestion.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
card_views / total_views. Cards are usually grouped under Direct/Unknown or a specific source.
Where the belief comes from: YouTube official help docs.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Compare AVD, retention pct, sub conversion, comment rate of Channel Page traffic vs Suggested traffic. Agrees if all four are higher for Channel Page.
102.0Checked on 199 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion.
- Held 20 days · Last changed Oct 3, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
For each engagement metric, Pearson correlation with sub conversion rate at the video level. Agrees if comments/v has the highest correlation.
0.30Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Engagement-depth folklore.
- Held 24 days · Last changed Sep 29, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
For videos with comparable view counts, regress impression-rate-after-day-7 on (comments per view) and (likes per view) separately. Agrees if |β_comments| > 2 × |β_likes|.
2.8×Checked on 35 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Various creator coaching.
- Held 16 days · Last changed Oct 7, 2026 · 2 changes
What the check does
Per video, scale CTR and retention to channel-relative units (each value's distance from the channel's median, divided by the channel's typical spread). Fit a linear regression of total views against both. If the magnitude of the CTR coefficient is at least 1.5× the retention coefficient, the data agrees that CTR dominates on this channel.
0.50×Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: MrBeast school of creator advice; widely contested.
Neither click-rate nor retention alone matters; the product (or geometric mean) does.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 retention-curve-derived precision.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Define combined = sqrt(ctr_z × retention_z) per video. Regress total views on combined vs on CTR and retention separately. Agrees if combined- only regression has higher R² than either-alone.
Where the belief comes from: Combined-quality folklore.
Channels publishing daily need pre-recorded inventory; those without it burn out.
not currently testableNot testable on this channel right now — the size of each channel's unreleased upload queue — scheduled and unlisted videos.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Across the shared pool — but this belief is conditional, and the condition is not in the data. It says daily publishers WITH pre-recorded inventory hold their cadence and those WITHOUT it break, so splitting the pool needs the size of each channel's unreleased queue: scheduled and unlisted videos. Only published videos are ever shared, so that split cannot be made. How often daily publishers break cadence IS measurable, but it answers a different question — reporting it here would credit the break to a cause nothing observed. The test names the field it needs and returns a verdict the day that field exists.
Where the belief comes from: Common creator advice.
- Held 25 days · Last changed Sep 28, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
For each video with ≥14 days tracked, what fraction of total lifetime views came from days 1–3? Channel median across qualifying videos.
0.33Checked on 29 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: VidIQ and TubeBuddy guides; widely repeated in creator literature.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
For videos ≥60 days old, coefficient of variation of daily views in days 30–60. Channel median. Agrees if median CoV ≤0.5.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common analytics-tool framing.
- Held 13 days · Last changed Oct 10, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Same as #12, but agrees if post-change views stay ≤50% of pre-change baseline for 14+ days. Tests for sustained damage rather than reset+recovery.
0.14Checked on 10 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Conventional wisdom (the 'no-fiddle' rule).
Videos with high end-screen click-through have higher overall retention.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 cards/end-screen data ingestion.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Per video, end-screen view share of total views vs lifetime weighted retention. Agrees if r ≥0.4. Requires Round 4 cards/end-screen data.
Where the belief comes from: End-screen optimization folklore.
End-screen impressions and clicks contribute 5–15% of traffic.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 retention/cards data ingestion.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
end_screen_views / total_views channel-wide. Reads from per-source breakdown. Note: requires retention curve / cards data from Round 4 to test fully.
Where the belief comes from: YouTube official help docs (creator-side guidance).
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
AVD, retention, sub conversion of External vs all other sources. Agrees if External AVD ≥ p75 of cross-source AVD distribution. Sample-size flag triggers when External views < 100 channel-wide.
9.00Checked on 9 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Days from 1 sub to 100 subs vs days from 100 to 200, 200 to 300, etc. Channel-relative growth rates per sub-bucket. Agrees if days-per-sub in 0–100 is ≥2× days-per-sub in 100–500.
904Checked on 904 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Beginner-creator coaching.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool. The belief never fixed a definition of "predicts", so this one is stated plainly: the TRAJECTORY is the slope of first-week views across a channel's first ten videos (rising, flat or falling), and the month-12 STATE is that channel's total views one year after its first upload. Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r >= 0.5, disagrees at r <= -0.5. A channel needs ten videos with a full first week and a shared day on or after its own first anniversary; those short of either are counted in the evidence rather than filled in.
-1.00Checked on 2 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Long-arc folklore.
- Held 2 days · Last changed Oct 21, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Pearson correlation of day1_views vs total_views across all videos with ≥30 days tracked. Same correlation for day1_ctr vs lifetime_weighted_ctr. Higher r = belief agrees on this channel.
0.74Checked on 16 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Closely related to #2; cited as 'velocity matters'.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool. For each channel: the views its FIRST video had banked by day 30, against that channel's own total views over its first 90 days. Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r >= 0.5, disagrees at r <= -0.5. Both windows must lie wholly inside a channel's shared coverage — a channel that shared only part of either window sits the round out rather than contributing an understated total.
0.88Checked on 3 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: TenfoldGrowth-style coaching.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
For each video pair (N−1, N) where N−1 is still in days 1–7 of its lifecycle when N publishes, compare N−1's view trajectory in the 3 days after N's publish to N−1's trajectory in the 3 days before. Channel median of (views_3d_after / views_3d_before) across eligible pairs.
0.76Checked on 31 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common creator advice; cited across creator coaching channels.
The 0–15-second retention drop is the strongest single predictor of overall performance.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. Awaiting Round 4 retention curve ingestion.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
From video retention curve, retention_15s_pct. Pearson correlation with total views and weighted_ctr_post_day_3. Agrees if r ≥0.7. Requires retention curve data (Round 4).
Where the belief comes from: Hook-economy folklore.
Hour-1 view rate predicts the video's lifetime performance.
not currently testableNot testable yet — the data it needs hasn't been wired up here. YouTube Reporting API does not expose hourly granularity.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Requires hourly data not exposed by the YouTube Reporting API.
Where the belief comes from: Velocity-creator folklore.
- Held 28 days · Last changed Sep 25, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Pearson correlation of duration_seconds and (total_watch_minutes / total_views). Agrees if r ≥0.5.
0.73Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Logical inference (bounded by retention).
- Held 14 days · Last changed Oct 9, 2026 · 3 changes
What the check does
Bucket videos by duration (60/180/360/600/1200/1800/3600+ sec). Median weighted CTR, AVD, retention pct, sub conversion per bucket. Agrees if 600s bucket has the highest median weighted retention pct.
1 minChecked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Creator-economy folklore; pre-2018 mid-roll-ad threshold.
- Held 34 days · Last changed Sep 19, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
When video N publishes, change in non-N videos' impression share over the next 3 days. Agrees if median impression-share-of-others drops ≥15% in the post-publish window.
0.92Checked on 39 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Catalog-cannibalization folklore.
Channels with narrow topical focus outgrow broad-topic channels.
not currently testableNot testable on this channel right now — per-video topic signal (video titles); the shared data carries one category per channel, which cannot describe how varied that channel's own videos are.
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Across the shared pool — but "narrow focus" has to be measured across a channel's OWN videos, which needs per-video topic signal (titles are the usual stand-in). The shared data carries one category per channel and no per-video text, and a single label cannot describe variation inside the channel it labels: two channels in one category may be a specialist and a generalist. Grading by category and calling it focus would be an invented measurement. The test names the field it needs; no number of extra channels supplies it.
Where the belief comes from: Niche-down folklore.
Titles with numbers (5 Ways… / 3 Things…) perform better.
not currently testableNot testable on this channel right now — owner-DB-only data (subscribed-state / search-query tables live in the private owner view, not the public DB).
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Median weighted CTR and median total views for title_has_number = 1 vs 0. Agrees if both metrics ≥1.2× the non-numbered group.
Where the belief comes from: Listicle-era folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
Late-afternoon publishing optimizes day-0 reach.
inconclusiveWhat the check does
Median day-1 views by hour-of-publish. Identify mode. Agrees if mode falls in 14:00–18:00 local time. Many channels lock to one hour, making this inconclusive.
Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Publishing-time folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Cadence regularity score = the typical day-to-day spread of inter-publish gaps, divided by the mean gap (coefficient of variation). Lower = more consistent. Correlate against trailing-30-day view growth.
42.0Checked on 35 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Universal creator-coaching advice.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Same calculation as #1.
0.76Checked on 31 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Aliased to #1 frequency_cannibalization (different phrasing of same belief).
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
For gaps of ≥5 days between publishes, compare the post-gap video's day-1/day-3 performance against the channel's typical day-1/day-3.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common creator coaching.
Titles ending in ? outperform on click-through rate.
not currently testableNot testable on this channel right now — owner-DB-only data (subscribed-state / search-query tables live in the private owner view, not the public DB).
Held 42 days · Never changed on recordWhat the check does
Median weighted CTR for videos where title_is_question = 1 vs 0. Owner-DB only — not in the public DB (titles are coarsened in public).
Where the belief comes from: Title-optimization folklore.
- Held 11 days · Last changed Oct 12, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Coefficient of variation of weekly weighted CTR and AVD across the channel's history. Compare CoV in weeks 1–10 vs weeks 11+. Agrees if both CoVs drop by ≥30% after the 30-video mark.
0.48Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Maturation folklore.
- Held 16 days · Last changed Oct 7, 2026 · 2 changes
What the check does
Same regression as #7; agrees if |β_retention| > 1.5 × |β_ctr|. Note: can be `inconclusive` simultaneously with #7 if neither dominates.
1.99×Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Sean Cannell / Think Media school; opposite of #7.
- Held 20 days · Last changed Oct 3, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Per video, slope of weekly Search-source view share over the video's lifetime. Channel-level: share of mature videos with positive slope.
-0.39Checked on 36 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: SEO-creator advice.
- Held 20 days · Last changed Oct 3, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Pearson correlation of duration_seconds and total_views. Agrees if r ≤−0.3.
-0.33Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Pre-Shorts-era folklore.
- Held 30 days · Last changed Sep 23, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Gini coefficient on subs_gained distribution across videos. Agrees if Gini ≥0.7.
0.89Checked on 42 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Power-law folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool. Subscribers per view (lifetime subscribers over lifetime views) against how far into a video the audience typically watches — the median halfway-mark watch ratio across that channel's videos. Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r >= 0.3, disagrees at r <= -0.3. The belief names three engagement reads; the shared data carries retention only, and the evidence records comment rate and average view duration as absent rather than substituting something else for them.
0.23Checked on 8 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Engagement-quality folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
AVD per (video, subscribed_state), videos carrying BOTH buckets. Agrees if the median subscribed ÷ unsubscribed ratio is ≥1.3. Reads summary_video_subscribed — public since V83.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Per-video, what % of day-0 views came from subscribed-state viewers? Channel median. Reads summary_video_subscribed.day0_views — public since V83.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion in creator coaching.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Suggested (RELATED_VIDEO) views per subscribed state, over the views that carried a status. Agrees if the non-subscribed share is ≥70%. Reads summary_channel_source_subscribed — public since V83.
Checked on 0 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common assertion.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
Channels accelerate after 1,000 subscribers.
inconclusiveWhat the check does
Across the shared pool. For each channel that crossed 1,000 subscribers inside its own shared coverage: mean daily views over the 30 days AFTER the crossing, divided by the mean over the 30 days before it. The reading is the pool's median of those ratios; agrees at >= 1.5, disagrees at <= 1/1.5. Both windows must lie inside coverage, so a channel already past 1,000 on its first shared day has no crossing to read.
10.0Checked on 0 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Monetization-threshold folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
Renaming a video resets its testing cycle.
inconclusiveWhat the check does
For videos with a title change, compare daily views/impressions/CTR for the 7 days before vs 7 days after the change. Agrees if median ratio drops below 0.5 then recovers above 1.0 within 14 days.
0.20Checked on 10 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Common YouTube growth-channel advice.
- Held 25 days · Last changed Sep 28, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Distribution of peak_views_day across mature videos. Agrees if ≥60% of videos peaked on days 0–2.
0Checked on 29 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Pre-2020 algorithmic-period folklore.
- Held 42 days · Never changed on record
What the check does
Across the shared pool, on a stand-in: a session spans videos and often channels, and nothing shared here can see one. The stand-in is the minutes a typical view spends watching — each video's length times how far its audience watched, weighted by first-week views — set against the channel's recent view growth (its last 28 covered days over the 28 before them). Pearson correlation across channels; agrees at r >= 0.3, disagrees at r <= -0.3. Confidence stays low at every pool size: this stands in for session length, it does not measure it.
0.27Checked on 6 channels ·
Where the belief comes from: Session-watch folklore (post-2018 algorithm framing).
- Held 37 days · Last changed Sep 16, 2026 · 1 change
What the check does
Median weighted CTR, AVD, sub conversion for videos published on Sat/Sun vs Mon–Fri. Agrees if all three are lower on weekend uploads. Inconclusive with <10 weekend uploads.
12Checked on 12 videos ·
Where the belief comes from: Day-of-week folklore.
Keep reading
What sits behind a verdict
Each verdict is a check against one channel's tracked data, not a comparison across many channels. These surfaces describe what the data can and can't say behind it.