beta

A video's lifetime trajectory is largely determined by its first 24–48 hour performance.

inconclusive

the sample is too thin to read

Held 24 days · Never changed on record

agrees on 1 of 4 pooled public channels · inconclusive on 2

What the check does

Pearson correlation of day1_views vs total_views across all videos with ≥30 days tracked. Same correlation for day1_ctr vs lifetime_weighted_ctr. Higher r = belief agrees on this channel.

The reading

0of the 5 this test needs

Checked on 0 videos ·

How the verdict has moved

First checked Aug 22, 2026; the verdict has not moved since.

Where the belief comes from

Closely related to #2; cited as 'velocity matters'.

Checked against

Every figure on this page is checked against @iamartharrison’s tracked data, through Sep 14, 2026. The tally above reads 4 pooled public channels’ files.

Keep reading

The rest of the record

This belief sits in a ledger of fifty, each one re-checked every day. These surfaces carry the rest of it.